NOTE: This section was the last to be written at the Midrand cottage.
The Plovers have been at it again, as there are some speckled brown eggs on the lawn near the cottage. This caused something of a panic and rushing around to find bricks because Garden Services were on their way. If I look out of the kitchen window, I can see Mom's head, surrounded by three bricks, patiently sitting on her eggs.
This is of course in the quiet time. When the Pack are having their early morning and late afternoon perambulation of the property all hell breaks loose. The whole trip of pretending to have broken wings and running in circles away from the nest and eventually divebombing the culprit (usually Biggles) then ensues. This eggsitting stuff is a nerve wracking time for parents.
I am quietly enjoying the holidays. As a pleasant change of pace I am taking a break from anything to do with Y2k and have reverted to what I do best, reading. The TOC H Charity shop in Parkwood sells packs of 5 second hand paperbacks for a Rand, so it is hardly an expensive exercise. And there is the added element of a "Lucky Dip". I get to read authors that I might otherwise have overlooked.
I have now moved back to the suburbs of Johannesburg. After a bit of a false start, where I got kicked out of a communal house in Gardens because I am a vile smoker, I am now living in the converted servants quarters of the cottage next door, where I can pollute the air to my hearts content. Compact, but all that I need. The only down side is that there is no telephone, so email and Internet surfing are not as easy as before. But in a way that is also a good thing. I can now devote my time to actual work.
But I can no longer claim Country Mouse status, so I will have to send any future missives in my new Townmouse persona.
I am not complaining. The Northern Suburbs of Johannesburg are so pleasant that you think you are in the country. And I am very close to my old haunts of Orange Grove and Norwood where I misspent my youth. So once again I can indulge my tastes for good Italian food and Kosher Delicatessen. The inhabitants of Gardens are very tolerant of us goyim.
When one is adopted by a cat, there are various things which change in one's life.
Firstly, it is necessary to always leave a window open, unless one wishes to be woken at all hours by loud indignant yowlings (from outside wanting in, or inside wanting out). That this can be inconvenient in the midst of violent rainstorms, icy cold snaps or hurricane gales is not relevant. The cat must have access.
Then there is the matter of Hunting.
Miss Chiff has somewhat abated in her habit of dragging semi-dead creatures into my bedroom. Largely because they seem to disappear rather fast. I think that she thinks that I am scoffing her delicious snacks all by myself (without sharing). If she only knew the surreptitious wrapping in plastic bags and late night interments that her victims cause me.
Not that moments of high drama are now lacking. Sitting straight up in bed a couple of nights ago after hearing alarming noises, a pigeon flew Thwock into my chest, closely followed by one feline in hot pursuit.
Only last night I was lying on my bed watching TV with the door open to enjoy the cool night air. A large rat of most serious demeanour came charging in, followed by Madame. Both then ran under the bed. Chaos, loud shouting, scrabbling under the bed with walking sticks and general jumping about at last persuaded the combatants to take their differences outside, and I could at last gratefully close the door on the ensuing mayhem outside in the courtyard.
Even as I write this, a sound like wild elephants stampeding is emanating from the roof above my head. Upon investigation I see green feral eyes gazing down upon me, and much licking of lips. Whatever it was, it is no more.
One would think that the perpetrator of all this would be a wild uncontrollable savage with gore dripping from slavering jaws and claws. Appearances are deceptive.
Miss Chiff is a small female tabby, of demure expression, elegant manners and sober habits. Butter, as they say, would not melt in her mouth. But a clear case where the female of the species is definitely deadlier.
One would think that we were deliberately starving the poor creature. But she actually belongs to the people across the road. Deputations arrive to fetch her, because she has not eaten her food. And they trot off happily, with Miss Chiff galloping behind, for an orgy of feeding.
Needless to say, a short while thereafter, loud crunching noises are detected emanating from the little pink plastic dishes of well balanced cat pellets which I put out for her (thinking she was this poor neglected stray). I just happen to live in her hunting zone.
And then the Hunt begins, and continues till all hours. You would think with all this intake that she would be a candidate for weight watchers. But no, slim and trim. Obviously a high metabolic rate.
What does any of this have to do with Y2k? Well probably not a lot. But it bears on my new relationship to Y2k Activism and what appears to be happening as we move towards the deadline.
Essentially the Cinderella effort has failed. The technical solution and documentation has been established and disseminated. But with a few notable exceptions nobody wants to use it. Disbelief, or what we used to call Denial is still very prevalent.
But that is fine. Cinderella achieved many of its objectives within its limited scope, and is still viable as a reference site. But I must now move on to the next phase.
I have changed my modus operandi. I have become involved in doing software installations, loosely related to Y2k, and this gives me the opportunity to see a very wide range of installations and allows me to evaluate the mind sets of a wide range of corporate people, technical and nontechnical.
In a nutshell, while most people are aware that some sort of Y2k problem exists, there is little or no understanding of the implications or solutions. We may have spread awareness, but we have not even scratched the surface of understanding. And without understanding, there is very little chance of convincing people to take effective action.
This is not without its humour. There was a case recently with an organisation that has 16000 PC's. They made a decision two years ago that the PCs were unimportant and they would concentrate only on the mainframe. Why did they bother to buy 16000 PCs if they are not important to the organisation?
I even encounter Y2k departments where the staff do not actually believe that Y2k can be a problem. How can one have the gall to accept money for doing a job in which you do not believe? How well are you able to perform tasks in which you have no confidence? Needless to say, such groups are not highly motivated.
It is these grass roots inconsistencies which have lead me to conclude that many Y2k efforts are doomed to failure.
On a Group basis, the Y2k SIG is pulling in its horns a bit as well. We will probably have a major conference in May and see how things go from there.
So the main area of concentration is infrastructure. As the media have now finally woken up to the fact that local governments are in an appalling state of readiness and this message has filtered into all levels of government, hopefully we will now see some action. If we can ensure that we will have electricity and water then that will be a step in the right direction.
I see some activity and interest coming from Rate Payers Associations and organisations such as Rotary, so let us hope that we can get some action from them in the limited time remaining.
But now we must do some Planning for Phase 3 of Y2k.
Now that we are well into Phase 2 of Y2k (Remediation and Implementation) we have about 9 months to plan for Phase 3 (Post Year 2000 actions).
For the gifted entrepreneur this will be the phase of greatest opportunity and profit. But it will not be for the fainthearted or sqeamish.
Many companies have made millions out of Phase 1 and Phase 2 of Y2k. But the Billions will be made in Phase 3, and not just by the Lawyers.
I think that the main opportunities will come from
1. Quick turn around solutions
2. Asset Stripping
3. Buying up floundering businesses
4. Business opportunities resulting from service disruptions
5. There may be a possibility that the Y2k Training efforts which have suffered so badly and which have been so unsuccessful, will become important.
Phase 2 has not been a wild success. Disbelief, Denial and sloppy planning and remediation have prevented companies and individuals from making adequate preparations and thus many organisations will go through the transition unprepared.
But this very same Disbelief and Denial will be a huge asset to the entrepreneurs in Phase 3, because if they do their homework, their victims will be unprepared and unsuspecting and will be easy pickings.
Let us work through a couple of scenarios.
Consider what would happen if a large corporate such as IBM (just for instance) took a lot of hits in the courts from Y2k litigation. It could happen. The few instances of claims against software suppliers have been settled in favour of plaintiffs. What would happen to the stock? It would zero very quickly. Now the smart money would buy enough stock to acquire total control.
Why would one want to own a large corporation in a terminal state you might ask? In a word, Asset stripping. Well established companies such as IBM have acquired huge real estate holdings over the years, which are fully amortised and off the books. The "hidden" values are huge. You close down trading operations, sell off the real estate, write off your worthless stock, and laugh all the way to the bank.
So a few hundred thousand ex-employees join the soup kitchen lines. Life is hard and cruel. They should have planned better.
Another example.
Consultants supporting the US Small Business Administration efforts estimate that 30% of Small Businesses will go under because of Y2k. And that even when the US is one of the only countries with an active plan for assisting Small Business with Y2k.
If you have done your homework and have enough petty cash, you could pick up some amazing bargains in the Millennial Junk Sale. If you are really smart you might buy out your competition and get a healthy monopoly going.
The systems integrator who can roll in total replacement systems quickly will also probably make a killing in the marketplace. Assuming that they can obtain hardware and have enough support "bodies".
Come to think of it, there may even be a major marketing opportunity in Soup Kitchens and sub-economic housing. Army surplus tents may well be a good investment.
Of course, we also have to consider that Y2k is merely a myth and will never happen. B>)